Future Babble: Why Pundits Are Hedgehogs and Foxes Know Best-Fast Shipping

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New York Times bestselling author of Superforecasting and Future Babble

“Genuinely arresting . . . required reading for journalists,politicians, academics, and anyone who listens to them.”—Steven Pinker, author of How the Mind Works

We are awash in predictions. In newspapers, blogs, and books; onradio and television. Every day experts tell us how the economy willperform next year, if housing sales will grow or shrink, and who willwin the next election. Predictions are offered about the climate, food,technology, and the world our grandchildren will inhabit. And we can’tget enough of it.

Drawing on research in cognitive psychology, political science, andbehavioral economics, award-winning journalist Dan Gardner explores ourobsession with the future. He shows how famous pundits, “hedgehogs” whostick to one big idea no matter how circumstances change, become expertat explaining away predictions that are wrong while “foxes,” who aremore equivocal in their judgments, are simply more accurate.